What SURE future Hall Of Famers are currently in the NFL?

[ChrisBabcock]

What SURE future Hall Of Famers are currently in the NFL? Dovetailing off the "bus test" discussion in a different topic. (If this player got hit by a bus today, would he get in the Hall Of Fame?)
We lost one recently when Champ Bailey announced his retirement.

I'll start...
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Adrian Peterson (note the only RB listed here)
Charles Woodson
Logan Mankins
Adam Vinatieri (probably not "sure" but I say he gets in someday)
Antonio Gates
Jason Witten
Demarcus Ware
Patrick Willis
Vince Wilfork
One coach: Belichick

[King Kong]

Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Ben Roethlisberger
Larry Fitzgerald
Patrick Willis
Steve Smith
Jason Witten
Antonio Gates
DeMarcus Ware
Terrell Suggs
Charles Woodson
Calvin Johnson
Troy Polamalu


Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Rodgers, Antonio Brown and J.J. Watt probably need more years. If Adrian Peterson never plays again, I could see the voters giving him a hard time.

I like Polamalu less than most people, but he will get enshrined. I had Antonio Brown on the 1st team of my personal 2013 All-Pro team. He would be the top WR on my midseason 2014 All-Pro team. He is on his way to a Hall of Fame career. He needs to avoid injuries.

I am sure there are some guys I am forgetting about, particularly some linemen. Nick Mangold's had an excellent career and deserves more publicity. Another 3+ quality seasons from him and he'll be on my list.

[ChrisBabcock]

Gronk and JJ Watt will definitely get in some day. They may pass the bus test a lot sooner than later. Maybe within 3 years.

[rhickok1109]

I'm not so sure about Mankins, Suggs, Wilfork, and Willis, but I think these are two pretty good lists.

[Rupert Patrick]

What SURE future Hall Of Famers are currently in the NFL? Dovetailing off the "bus test" discussion in a different topic. (If this player got hit by a bus today, would he get in the Hall Of Fame?)
We lost one recently when Champ Bailey announced his retirement.

I'll start...
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees
Adrian Peterson (note the only RB listed here)
Charles Woodson
Logan Mankins
Adam Vinatieri (probably not "sure" but I say he gets in someday)
Antonio Gates
Jason Witten
Demarcus Ware
Patrick Willis
Vince Wilfork
One coach: Belichick

I think Vinatieri gets in easily, as he has a reputation as the greatest clutch kicker of his generation, possibly all time. Being that he is already over 2,000 points in his career, and probably has one of the highest career won-lost percentages (of the teams he has played for) of any player in history except for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and Otto Graham, he is probably first ballot. I don't know that I would vote for him, I would probably rate him as the sixth or seventh greatest kicker in pro football history, but I know I would be in the minority.

Arguments can probably be made for Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne and Boldin in addition to Fitzgerald, who I think is already across the line.

I will also put the aforementioned Roethlisberger and Devin Hester on the list. Like Vinatieri and clutch kicking, Hester has the reputation as being the greatest return man in pro football history, deserved or not, and I think he goes in untouched.

I think Shane Lechler is close, very close, to HOF consideration.

Among coaches, I think Commandant Coughlin has a very good shot of getting inducted eventually, between the two Super Bowl wins in New York and also building Jacksonville into a Super Bowl calibre team.

I was thinking about this today, which player passed the bus test the quickest? I think the answer may be Earl Campbell, who I think crossed the HOF line after the 1981 season, his fourth in the NFL. The same could be said for Namath, I suppose, four seasons, but that was different circumstances. But in general I believe it takes at least 7-8 years to build up enough of a resume that make you a no doubt HOFer even if you retired thereafter barring the whole "Gale Sayers short career due to injury" argument.

[ChrisBabcock]

Arguments can probably be made for Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne and Boldin in addition to Fitzgerald, who I think is already across the line.

I'm hesitant to include any WRs on my list. I think part of the reason we have the current logjam at that position is because the voters think WR numbers will continue to get inflated as the years go by, and how will these guys' numbers compare against any future awesome WRs.

I think within 25 years 5000 yard passing seasons and 2000 yard receiving seasons will be "normal".

[Reaser]

I realize this is just for fun, but I personally don't like putting players in the PFHOF until their careers are over, even if they're obvious like Manning or Brady. Plus I can't stand when announcers/media/etc say so and so is a "future hall of famer".

I just think, what if 'we' were doing this list/exercise midway through the 1986 season? The list would include names like Kenny Easley, Lester Hayes, Joe Jacoby, Deron Cherry, Nolan Cromwell, Jimbo Covert, someone might even list Dave Butz, etc ...

For a couple of them people would post how they've already passed the bus test. Fast forward three decades and none of those guys are in the Hall of Fame.

[conace21]

Sports Illustrated ran an article in the summer of 1995. It polled 33 out of 34 HOF voters and asked this very question; who would they vote for the HOF right now?

Only 7 players and one coach got enough votes to be enshrined; Jerry Rice and Marino were the only ones to get every vote. Don Shula, Elway, Bruce Smith, Reggie White, Barry Sanders, and Ronnie Lott also got enough votes to qualify. (Lott did not play in 1995; he broke his leg in the preseason and retired in 1996. So someone actually voted against Ronnie Lott after he played his last game) Sanders had only played 6 seasons at that point; it was likely that the 1994 rushing title was where he passed the bus test.
Marcus Allen and Emmitt Smith were right on the verge; Smith's setting the TD record and winning the rushing title and his third Super Bowl in 1995 probably pushed him over the top; that was also his 6th season. Rod Woodson was a near miss at that point. Steve Young, Thurman Thomas, Jim Kelly, and Jackie Slater were also close-but-no-cigar.
Future HOF players who didn't get close were Aikman, Seau (I'm assuming), Bruce Matthews, Cris Carter, Irvin, Dermonti Dawson, Deion Sanders (who only got 2 votes despite coming off a DPOY award), Randall McDaniel, and Derrick Thomas. The article predicted Warren Moon would miss enshrinement (then again, who would expect Moon, who was nearly 39, to have two more dominant seasons in 1995 and 1997?) Andre Reed wasn't mentioned, but I think he was regarded as a long shot.

[JohnH19]

I realize this is just for fun, but I personally don't like putting players in the PFHOF until their careers are over, even if they're obvious like Manning or Brady. Plus I can't stand when announcers/media/etc say so and so is a "future hall of famer".

I just think, what if 'we' were doing this list/exercise midway through the 1986 season? The list would include names like Kenny Easley, Lester Hayes, Joe Jacoby, Deron Cherry, Nolan Cromwell, Jimbo Covert, someone might even list Dave Butz, etc ...

For a couple of them people would post how they've already passed the bus test. Fast forward three decades and none of those guys are in the Hall of Fame.

Here, here, Matt. The only two SURE HoFers playing right now are Manning and Brady. Brees is a very good bet.

[Jeremy Crowhurst]

Sports Illustrated ran an article in the summer of 1995. It polled 33 out of 34 HOF voters and asked this very question; who would they vote for the HOF right now?

Only 7 players and one coach got enough votes to be enshrined; Jerry Rice and Marino were the only ones to get every vote. Don Shula, Elway, Bruce Smith, Reggie White, Barry Sanders, and Ronnie Lott also got enough votes to qualify. (Lott did not play in 1995; he broke his leg in the preseason and retired in 1996. So someone actually voted against Ronnie Lott after he played his last game) Sanders had only played 6 seasons at that point; it was likely that the 1994 rushing title was where he passed the bus test.
Marcus Allen and Emmitt Smith were right on the verge; Smith's setting the TD record and winning the rushing title and his third Super Bowl in 1995 probably pushed him over the top; that was also his 6th season. Rod Woodson was a near miss at that point. Steve Young, Thurman Thomas, Jim Kelly, and Jackie Slater were also close-but-no-cigar.
Future HOF players who didn't get close were Aikman, Seau (I'm assuming), Bruce Matthews, Cris Carter, Irvin, Dermonti Dawson, Deion Sanders (who only got 2 votes despite coming off a DPOY award), Randall McDaniel, and Derrick Thomas. The article predicted Warren Moon would miss enshrinement (then again, who would expect Moon, who was nearly 39, to have two more dominant seasons in 1995 and 1997?) Andre Reed wasn't mentioned, but I think he was regarded as a long shot.

That's a great article. IIRC, Will McDonough said he thought Marcus Allen was "just a guy" for that piece.

I think if Megatron was killed by a bus, he'd get in. If he suffered a career-ending injury this weekend, I'm not so sure. I suspect that Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald will get the Harold Jackson treatment. I think Wayne gets in, though I'm not sure he deserves to.