25 Semi Finalists

[Jeremy Crowhurst]

Statistics really only have value when you are closer to an "all things being equal" situation between the people being compared. I don't know where these passer rating versus stats are coming from -- if you can share that, I'd appreciate it -- and I don't know how comprehensive the data is.

But PFR lets you look up all kinds of things. Here are the top ten QBs Champ Bailey faced in his years in Denver, ranked by pass attempts made:

478 Philip Rivers
249 Tom Brady
193 Carson Palmer
189 Matt Cassel
183 Drew Brees
167 Kerry Collins
158 Ben Roethlisberger
153 Peyton Manning
152 Joe Flacco
140 Trent Green


Here are the QBs he faced during 2006, the season he was #3 in passer rating against. This is the complete list.

59 Andrew Walter
55 Tom Brady
54 Ben Roethlisberger
49 Philip Rivers
40 Carson Palmer
39 Peyton Manning
35 Matt Leinart
34 Marc Bulger
34 Steve McNair
33 Charlie Frye
32 Alex Smith
28 Matt Hasselbeck
23 Damon Huard
22 Trent Green

Manning and Rivers had great games, with passer ratings over 100. Damon Huard was third at 87.8. All the other QBs had passer ratings below 80 for these games.

Here are the top ten QBs that Deion faced, by pass attempts, during his four year run in Dallas, 95-98, where he was #1 in the league:

142 Gus Frerotte
113 Brett Favre*
111 Jake Plummer
107 Dave Brown
105 Rodney Peete
102 Danny Kanell
99 Kent Graham
77 Ty Detmer
73 Erik Kramer
66 Warren Moon*


I think when you look at who was throwing the ball against Bailey, and who was throwing the ball against Deion, it's immediately apparent why Deion was #1 for those four years, why Bailey was #3 in 2006, but otherwise not in the top 10, in Denver, other than 2012.

So looking at this, I don't think "passer rating allowed" is a particularly useful statistic given what appears to be pretty wildly divergent co-factors. The sample sizes are just way too small, and really it ignores what might be the most important stat: number of times the QB threw the ball somewhere else because the CB had his guy covered.

[JWL]

Oh, yeah, statistics particularly with defensive backs can only show so much if anything at all.

Did the guy not make many interceptions because he rarely saw passes thrown his way or did he rarely make interceptions due to having bricks for hands? Does passer rating against take into account situations where the player's team is up 37-15 with 3 minutes to go and the cornerback is playing off coverage and is willing to allow receptions to be made?

All that type of stuff has to be considered.

Since Bailey joined the league, I have liked Darrelle Revis, Charles Woodson and Richard Sherman more as cornerbacks. I have no statistics to share. I am basing this list on eye test stuff and accumulated knowledge. There might be another guy or two I am forgetting but I wouldn't have Bailey any higher than 4th on the list of best cornerbacks in the 21st century.

[NWebster]

Statistics really only have value when you are closer to an "all things being equal" situation between the people being compared. I don't know where these passer rating versus stats are coming from -- if you can share that, I'd appreciate it -- and I don't know how comprehensive the data is.

But PFR lets you look up all kinds of things. Here are the top ten QBs Champ Bailey faced in his years in Denver, ranked by pass attempts made:

478 Philip Rivers
249 Tom Brady
193 Carson Palmer
189 Matt Cassel
183 Drew Brees
167 Kerry Collins
158 Ben Roethlisberger
153 Peyton Manning
152 Joe Flacco
140 Trent Green


Here are the QBs he faced during 2006, the season he was #3 in passer rating against. This is the complete list.

59 Andrew Walter
55 Tom Brady
54 Ben Roethlisberger
49 Philip Rivers
40 Carson Palmer
39 Peyton Manning
35 Matt Leinart
34 Marc Bulger
34 Steve McNair
33 Charlie Frye
32 Alex Smith
28 Matt Hasselbeck
23 Damon Huard
22 Trent Green

Manning and Rivers had great games, with passer ratings over 100. Damon Huard was third at 87.8. All the other QBs had passer ratings below 80 for these games.

Here are the top ten QBs that Deion faced, by pass attempts, during his four year run in Dallas, 95-98, where he was #1 in the league:

142 Gus Frerotte
113 Brett Favre*
111 Jake Plummer
107 Dave Brown
105 Rodney Peete
102 Danny Kanell
99 Kent Graham
77 Ty Detmer
73 Erik Kramer
66 Warren Moon*


I think when you look at who was throwing the ball against Bailey, and who was throwing the ball against Deion, it's immediately apparent why Deion was #1 for those four years, why Bailey was #3 in 2006, but otherwise not in the top 10, in Denver, other than 2012.

So looking at this, I don't think "passer rating allowed" is a particularly useful statistic given what appears to be pretty wildly divergent co-factors. The sample sizes are just way too small, and really it ignores what might be the most important stat: number of times the QB threw the ball somewhere else because the CB had his guy covered.

#1 Champ was rarely, rarely targeted, he did not "tilt the field" as did Sanders or Asonugau. But I would also never disagree that passer rating is just one thing. I believe that HOF requires 2 of the following 3, eye test, stats and honors, 1st ballot guys check all the boxes, early guys check 2 of 3 and late or senior guys check 1 of 3. I just watched Champ and never thought all-time great CB, others chime in where I'm wrong, the passer rating against suggests very good and awards suggest all time great, so I'm fine with him in, but if you look at first ballot Cab's I do not think him worthy.

I have CB passer rating against stats from 1995 to date, better than Champ, Sam Madison, Ty Law, d Darren Green, and many others. I have tracked play by play film of the era and agree with the stats. I have a few games missing and would really like to fill in 1994 to compare Sanders, Woodson, Williams, etc from that era, happy to discuss if anyone would like.

Why exactly is Champ a HOF'er other than Pro Bowls? Happy to argue with you as long as you'd like on the topic, there is a tendency, for players at non skill positions who start off strong to get a heap of pro bowl recognition if they perform well early, see Pouncey, Bailey, Peterson (not the best corner either though better than Bailey) etc.

[NWebster]

Oh, yeah, statistics particularly with defensive backs can only show so much if anything at all.

Did the guy not make many interceptions because he rarely saw passes thrown his way or did he rarely make interceptions due to having bricks for hands? Does passer rating against take into account situations where the player's team is up 37-15 with 3 minutes to go and the cornerback is playing off coverage and is willing to allow receptions to be made?

All that type of stuff has to be considered.

Since Bailey joined the league, I have liked Darrelle Revis, Charles Woodson and Richard Sherman more as cornerbacks. I have no statistics to share. I am basing this list on eye test stuff and accumulated knowledge. There might be another guy or two I am forgetting but I wouldn't have Bailey any higher than 4th on the list of best cornerbacks in the 21st century.

Law should be in before Champ, but he doesn't have as good a nickname so, unfortunately we're probably done there. Our current president can tell you so much about what dying at the right time has to do with being a senior nominee, I'd argue that post career prominence, (John Lynch and John Madden) as well as popularity and nicknames ahve just as much as to do with it. Who should you elect Champ or Ty, the voters are that fickle - don't fool yourself.

[JohnTurney]

I don't know where these passer rating versus stats are coming from -- if you can share that, I'd appreciate it -- and I don't know how comprehensive the data is.

Well, Stats Inc has had that stat for over 25 years. It's still used by them and PFF and others. It's 100% comprehensive. It seems like a group like us would have at least a working knowledge of things that are out there...back in the 1990s Stats LLC sold a yearly book with that data in it.

[JohnTurney]

Oh, yeah, statistics particularly with defensive backs can only show so much if anything at all.

Did the guy not make many interceptions because he rarely saw passes thrown his way or did he rarely make interceptions due to having bricks for hands? Does passer rating against take into account situations where the player's team is up 37-15 with 3 minutes to go and the cornerback is playing off coverage and is willing to allow receptions to be made?

All that type of stuff has to be considered.
.

The same is true for all positions. QBs, RBs, DLmen, LBers. We use stats for all those positions. No reason to exclude DBs. More data is better than less. How much weight is given to it is up to the individual.

All football stats are skewed in some way due to circumstances. It's good to consider all things that go into it, but what I am sensing here is extra scrutiny of the DB passer rating to lack of familiarity of it. And that would be too bad.

I don't think it's any kind of be-all, end-all. But it's one tool in a toolbox. It's just that maybe some of us are not versus very well in the use of that tool

[Reaser]

Defensive passer rating works better as a team stat (secondary, and really defense as a whole since it all goes together) than it does as an individual passer rating against stat. Not that I'm all that big on stats anyway but it does a better job of tacking on a stat to back up an argument/opinion.

Maybe if it was isolated to cover-0 or certain single-high looks (depending on safety responsibility) and I guess certain 2-man (depending on route) passer rating against would tell more individually, for CB's.

Otherwise, you have for example Sherman, lot of press 3 where Thomas was the primary reason those Seahawks secondaries worked and obviously can expand to say why those Seahawks defense's worked. That and communication, Sherman and Thomas made an art of passing off receivers to eachother, even freelancing ("ESP, man" in my Dennis Hopper commercial voice), and those 'zones' weren't equal. Thomas covered more and he even -amazingly- managed to cover/erase mistakes/CB's being beat, not just by the 'other' CB's (Browner/Maxwell/etc) but for Sherman also. Thomas existing allowed Sherman to play more aggressive, take more chances and overall play in a way that most CB's didn't or wouldn't have the luxury of. When a WR ran by a contemporary there was no Earl Thomas somehow going from opposite hash all the way to sideline to break up a pass. Whatever credit you give to Sherman take a decent chunk of it and place it onto Thomas' resume. Not to discredit Sherman, very good to great but the why (for his time in Seattle) is important. So passer rating against in that context, very different from passing rating against for Deion, for the easy example. And context for each individual CB is needed, can't just be presented in list form and oh, he was ranked #x. Which of course is the problem with stats in general, even the very few that make some sense/tell a reasonable story, all need context and the context is generally real football, rendering the stats anywhere from obsolete to at best, redundant.

there is a tendency, for players at non skill positions who start off strong to get a heap of pro bowl recognition if they perform well early, see Pouncey, Bailey, Peterson (not the best corner either though better than Bailey) etc.

Exactly on Bailey and Peterson. Pouncey is a different category, didn't even have to perform well early, just had to be the rare OL who media actually knew his name and more importantly just had to get drafted by the Steelers. Which was the projected landing spot for him in advance. As soon as it happened media were falling all over themselves ("next Steelers HOF center!") and already giving him their all-pro votes for future years in advance in permanent marker. As well as hyped him up enough on the TV media side that before even playing a down in the NFL, the gift pro bowl selections were a lock. At least most players that fall into this category, which certainly exists, had to do 'something' before getting the name-recognition selections.

99% sure I've complained on this forum about how Pouncey is rated at one point or another every year since 2010. So we'll count this comment as 2018's. Though, I will say Pouncey looked good on the Ben to JuJu 97-yard TD yesterday.

[bachslunch]

Reaser, agreed that there seems to be some kind of favoritism regarding Steeler o-linemen lately that may or may not necessarily be warranted. Maurkice Pouncey, David DeCastro, Alejandro Villanueva — are they really all that and a bag of rice, or is this Steeler hype? Or in Villanueva’s case, anti-Kaepernick backlash? One wonders.

[JWL]

Oh, yeah, statistics particularly with defensive backs can only show so much if anything at all.

Did the guy not make many interceptions because he rarely saw passes thrown his way or did he rarely make interceptions due to having bricks for hands? Does passer rating against take into account situations where the player's team is up 37-15 with 3 minutes to go and the cornerback is playing off coverage and is willing to allow receptions to be made?

All that type of stuff has to be considered.

Since Bailey joined the league, I have liked Darrelle Revis, Charles Woodson and Richard Sherman more as cornerbacks. I have no statistics to share. I am basing this list on eye test stuff and accumulated knowledge. There might be another guy or two I am forgetting but I wouldn't have Bailey any higher than 4th on the list of best cornerbacks in the 21st century.

Law should be in before Champ, but he doesn't have as good a nickname so, unfortunately we're probably done there. Our current president can tell you so much about what dying at the right time has to do with being a senior nominee, I'd argue that post career prominence, (John Lynch and John Madden) as well as popularity and nicknames ahve just as much as to do with it. Who should you elect Champ or Ty, the voters are that fickle - don't fool yourself.

Yeah, I probably would pick Law over Bailey.

[JWL]

The same is true for all positions. QBs, RBs, DLmen, LBers. We use stats for all those positions. No reason to exclude DBs. More data is better than less. How much weight is given to it is up to the individual.

All football stats are skewed in some way due to circumstances. It's good to consider all things that go into it, but what I am sensing here is extra scrutiny of the DB passer rating to lack of familiarity of it. And that would be too bad.

I don't think it's any kind of be-all, end-all. But it's one tool in a toolbox. It's just that maybe some of us are not versus very well in the use of that tool

I'm not against it at all. It is really that I agree with Reaser's comments. Passer rating against is a great team tool. I don't know how great it is when focusing on individual players.

When I rate cornerbacks, I first go with "eye test" and how I thought of the players while their careers were occurring- real simplistic, in other words. Most times it stops right there. Obviously Charles Woodson was a lot better than Terrance Shaw. However, if it is a choice between Woodson and Champ Bailey and I choose to make a peep on that, I will have to consider other stuff like honors, stats (individual- and sometimes team), comments from contemporaries, etc.

To summarize, I do not discount individual passer rating against (IPRA). I didn't mean to indicate otherwise. I simply don't know how good of a stat it is for the type of examples posted earlier. Looking back, my sentence that started, "Oh yeah..." comes across more anti-IPRA than I meant.

I originally chimed in here because that wing guy was dismissive of NWebster's well-thought-out post that had IPRA numbers.