2018 NFL predictions

[74_75_78_79_]

So with the pre-season now over, and the Banner-drop at the Linc a seven full nights away, time to fire-away with our forecasts! Standings, playoffs, Rookie of the Year, MVP, Coach of the Year, what HC loses his job first, and any other miscellaneous side-predictions...

[JohnH19]

You should start us off.

[74_75_78_79_]

You should start us off.

No problem, John. But it may take a little bit. Will try to post ASAP. If someone can’t wait to post theirs until then, they may.

But for right now, how about these...

1) Falcons win Opening Night.

2) NE starts out 1-2; both losses Weeks #2 & #3 - @Jax & @Det respectively.

3) Rams start out 8-0.

[Rupert Patrick]

You should start us off.

No problem, John. But it may take a little bit. Will try to post ASAP. If someone can’t wait to post theirs until then, they may.

But for right now, how about these...

1) Falcons win Opening Night.

2) NE starts out 1-2; both losses Weeks #2 & #3 - @Jax & @Det respectively.

3) Rams start out 8-0.

1 - I look for the Eagles not to repeat as Super Bowl champs this season. However, of the 14 Thursday night openers since 2004, 11 of them have been won by the team who won the Super Bowl the previous season. The three losers were in 2012 (Cowboys beat Giants), 2013 (Broncos beat Ravens in Denver; Peyton threw 7 TD passes and I don't think anybody would have stopped him that night), and 2017 (Chiefs beat Patriots).

2 - I think the Texans beat the Pats week 1. The AFC South should be a three-team horse race, between Jacksonville, Tennessee and Houston. I think 10 wins should be enough to take this division, and in the end it will probably come down to the week 17 game between Houston and Jacksonville to decide the division. The loser will get a wild card.

3 - I don't see the Rams starting out 8-0. They will probably win the NFC West this year but I expect Arizona to rebound. Like Jacksonville, if the Rams are truly a dynasty in the process of coming together, they'll probably relapse a little this year and emerge a team that will be dominant over the next 5-8 years after that. In studying teams who come out of nowhere (Cinderella teams and surprise teams), they tend to revert back to form and move back toward the middle the following season (1973 Steelers, 1982 49ers, 1989 Bills, 2002 Patriots to name a few) and then go on from there to become much better teams in the years to come. The Rams should win about ten games, which should be just enough to win the NFC West.

[74_75_78_79_]

Okay, here it is. Used an 'NFL Playoff Predictor' device online while watching some pre-season repeats; it had me pick every game, standings tallying up with each pick. I'll admit, I rushed it a bit, but will stick with these results (some which really surprised me after Week #17 was finished) just the same...

AFC
East: (#4) New England 9-7, Miami 6-10, NY Jets 6-10, Buffalo 3-13
North: (#2) Pittsburgh 12-4, (#6) Baltimore 9-7, Cleveland 8-8, Cincinnati 6-10
South: (#1) Jacksonville 13-3, (#5) Tennessee 10-6, Houston 7-9, Indianapolis 1-15
West: (#3) LA Chargers 10-6, Denver 7-9, Kansas City, 6-10, Oakland 6-10

1st Rd: Titans over Patriots, Ravens over Chargers
Divisional: Steelers over Titans, Jaguars over Ravens
CC: Steelers over Jaguars

NFC
East: (#2) Philadelphia 13-3, NY Giants 7-9, Redskins 6-10, Dallas 4-12
North: (#3) Detroit 13-3, (#6) Green Bay 12-4, Minnesota 10-6, Chicago 4-12
South: (#1) Atlanta 13-3, (#5) New Orleans 12-4, Carolina 11-5, Tampa Bay 2-14
West: (#4) LA Rams 12-4, Seattle 9-7, San Francisco 6-10, Arizona 3-13

1st Rd: Packers over Lions, Rams over Saints
Divisional: Eagles over Rams, Falcons over Packers
CC: Eagles over Falcons

Super Bowl LIII - Pittsburgh over Philadelphia, SBMVP - Antonio Brown


Sure I'll get enough gruff but no one can say that I've ever picked the 'Burgh to win it all. Been pretty pessimistic in recent years. Didn't I pick the Ravens (at Steelers' expense) to go to the SB (beat NYG) two years ago? I know I had Steelers at 8-8 going into 2008. I simply think this is the year they finally get it together for that 7th Lombardi, just in time for what ought to be the last year of the three 'Killer Bs' being together. Bell will have a career-year trying to kill two birds with a stone - winning a Ring in Pittsburgh en route to a best contract possible elsewhere for 2019. The D will come together, despite Shazier's absense, just enough. They'll beat NE in their game against them and just barely lose at Jax - only to get their revenge later.

I know, I actually picked Tampa Bay last year to represent the NFC (lose convincingly to NE), and I'd really hate to see Koetter (good coach) be the first HC to go, but their schedule - inside and outside the NFC South - is quite brutal! If I would have simply picked the standings without combing over each and every week, I would have had it quite different. Thought I'd have Jags at 10-6 again (but still making CC) and NE earning another bye week (but actually losing in divisional); but with each week I was able to simply see more Pats' opponents being more up for them (nothing lasts forever, they have to finally wilt) and more of the Jags' opponents playing into their hands after all.

I thought I picked quite a few upsets, but perhaps not enough; or at least not enough in the NFC - a 12-4 team 6th-seed?? Make that 12-4 being the worst playoff team - period (a 13-3 third-seed as well)! And with a non-playoff 11-5, 10-6, and 9-7 to boot (yep, Hawks in 2nd place and above-500; no, not drinking the last year's hot-finish Garoppolo Kool Aid just yet - maybe playoffs next year for SF). Even going into this week-by-week process, I actually did have Minny as a surprise non-playoff team but with double-digit wins. Was thinking Det & GB top-two in division ahead of time; just didn't see Detroit going 13-3! I did see a three-headed monster in the NFC South which, again, simply kills TB. That Panthers/Saints finale all but promises to either be a play-in game, or simply a playoff-positioning affair.

Didn't think Browns (6-5 start in my week-by-week) would be 8-8. I already figured big improvement though as well as they actually splitting with each AFC North foe. I know I'm not the only one but Myles Garrett is my Defensive Player of the Year. Call it Penn State-bias, but I got Saquon as ROY. Matt Patricia COY. League MVP? Well, if I got Lions finishing 13-3 then I may as well go with their QB as well as their HC! Or maybe Flacco. I can see him having his best year yet.

Real good point about that 'one-step-back' before resuming, Rupert; and good examples given. You very well may be right on that. But I'll stick with what I already predicted. Rams seem stacked enough for such a start. I did have them taper off though, finishing 4-4.

[ChrisBabcock]

3. Patriots 11-5
Jets 7-9
Bills 6-10
Dolphins 5-11

1. Steelers 11-5
Ravens 7-9
Bengals 7-9
Browns 6-10

4. Texans 10-6
6. Jaguars 10-6
Titans 6-10
Colts 3-13

2. Chargers 11-5
5. Chiefs 10-6
Broncos 7-9
Raiders 6-10
-----------------
3. Eagles 12-4
Redskins 8-8
Cowboys 7-9
Giants 7-9

1. Vikings 13-3
6. Packers 10-6
Lions 7-9
Bears 6-10

2. Saints 12-4
5. Falcons 11-5
Panthers 8-8
Buccaneers 2-14

4. Rams 10-6
49ers 9-7
Seahawks 7-9
Cardinals 4-12
-----------------
Jaguars over Patriots (playoff upset!)
Texans over Chiefs
Packers over Eagles
Rams over Falcons

Steelers over Jaguars
Chargers over Texans
Vikings over Packers
Rams over Saints

Chargers over Steelers
Vikings over Rams (if only this could be played at the Met!)

Super Bowl: Vikings over Chargers

[Rupert Patrick]

I ran the Playoff Predictor myself. Here goes nothing (playoff seeding in parenthesis):

AFC North
Pittsburgh 10-6 (3)
Baltimore 8-8
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 4-12

South
Houston 13-3 (1)
Jacksonville 12-4 (5)
Tennessee 7-9
Indianapolis 3-13

East
New England 10-6 (4)
Buffalo 9-7
Miami 5-11
NY Jets 3-13

West
Kansas City 13-3 (2)
LA Chargers 11-5 (6)
Denver 7-9
Oakland 6-10

NFC North
Green Bay 11-5 (4)
Minnesota 11-5 (5)
Chicago 6-10
Detroit 4-12

South
New Orleans 11-5 (3)
Atlanta 9-7
Carolina 9-7
Tampa Bay 4-12

East
Philadelphia 11-5 (1)
Dallas 10-6 (6)
NY Giants 5-11
Washington 3-13

West
LA Rams 11-5 (2)
San Francisco 8-8
Seattle 7-9
Arizona 7-9

Super Bowl LIII - Vikings over Jags

[ChrisBabcock]

9 game difference between Matt and Rupert with the Lions!

[74_75_78_79_]

9 game difference between Matt and Rupert with the Lions!

Yeah, lol, I wasn't expecting it when I began the whole week-by-week predictor. But the wins kept piling on; kept picturing them win each game. I actually had them start 7-0, losing their first game at Minn; then losing the next week in an upset at Chicago. Didn't have them lose again until the finale at GB.


Two Vikings picks, I see (would have liked to see your projected playoffs, Rupert)? I guess what all three of us can agree on are the Pats finally falling off, or at least not earn a bye week ('09 revisited), Colts & Bucs will suffer mightily, and Gruden’s Raiders finishing 6-10. What we seem to disagree on are our takes on the Texans & Vikings, although I have the latter still winning in double-digits. I don’t know, I just sense a slight fall-off for Minny if just for this year. Maybe I’m making too much of it but the way they just simply didn’t show up at Philly in the NFCC, with hosting the Super Bowl the ultimate inspirational tool in their arcenal mind you (and coming off a ‘team of destiny’-miracle the week prior). And I’m just not too overly sold on Cousins.

Houston? I simply see Jax & Tenn as more promising along with Texans’ continual injury woes. Would like to see Bill O’Brien achieve serious success in the pros as an HC and am a fan of Watt and Deshaun. Didn’t want O’Brien to leave Penn St but couldn’t have gotten a better replacement with Franklin.

Phillip Rivers, like Ken Anderson in ’81, finally making a SB? It’s possible, but there always seems to be something that stops them. All through Rivers’ career his team would start slow, rally into the 1st Rd, usually win that game (especially if vs Peyton’s Colts, at home or RCA), then come up short of a CC-berth, 2007 the exception. But who knows, maybe moving to Anaheim last year (change of scenery) will end up doing the trick (although that’d be a major shame for San Diegans).

Viking/Jags SB? It seems almost “too easy” to assume, but had that been the case last year, SBLII would’ve been the antithesis of the game/matchup we actually got: all-defense instead of all-offense.

[7DnBrnc53]

AFC
East: 4-Patriots (11-5), Jets (7-9), Bills (6-10), Dolphins (4-12)
North: 2-Steelers (12-4), Ravens (8-8), Browns (6-10), Bengals (5-11)
South: H-Jaguars (12-4), 5-Texans (10-6), Titans (8-8), Colts (6-10)
West: 3-Chargers (11-5), 6-Broncos (10-6), Chiefs (8-8), Raiders (6-10)

NFC
East: 3-Eagles (12-4), Redskins (8-8), Cowboys (7-9), Giants (5-11)
North: 2-Packers (12-4), 6-Vikings (10-6), Bears (9-7), Lions (3-13)
South: H-Saints (13-3), 5-Falcons (10-6), Panthers (9-7), Bucs (4-12)
West: 4-49ers (10-6), Rams (9-7), Cardinals (8-8), Seahawks (5-11)

Wild Card
AFC: Pats over Texans, Chargers over Broncos
NFC: Eagles over Vikings, 49ers over Falcons

Divisional Round
AFC: Jags over Pats, Steelers over Chargers
NFC: Packers over Eagles, Saints over 49ers

Championship Games
AFC: Jags over Steelers
NFC: Packers over Saints

SB 53: Packers over Jaguars (Aaron Rodgers, MVP)

Coaches let go: Adam Gase (Miami), Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati), John Harbaugh (Baltimore), Pete Carroll (Seattle)